n072  1902  30 Dec 84
BC-SAFIRE-COLUMN
ESSAY: Office Pool, 1985
By WILLIAM SAFIRE
c.1984 N.Y. Times News Service
    WASHINGTON - Here, for the high rollers of punditry, is the office
pool in Cassandra's Casino. Nobody ever gets more than four correct,
but when you hit on a big one, all the predictions that went awry are
washed away.
e,c,b,d,b
    1. White House chief of staff at 1985's end will be (a) James Baker;
(b) Michael Deaver; (c) Richard Darman; (d) Robert McFarlane; (e)
**William Clark.
    2. The juiciest political scandal of 1985 will involve (a) illegal
eavesdropping; (b) money under the table; (c)** leak-plugging
lie-detection excesses; (d) sexual favoritism.
    3. The real increase in defense-budget authorization will wind up
(a) 7 percent or over, as President Reagan seeks; (b)** a compromise
between 4 and 6 percent; (c) under 4 percent for the first time since
Jimmy Carter.
    4. The amendment that will pass is the (a) balanced budget; (b)
school prayer; (c) anti-abortion; (d)** none.
,a,b,b,c,d,
    5. The administration will succeed in getting (a) funding for
contras; (b)** substantial tax simplification; (c) big cut in Medicare
costs; (d) funding for the MX missile; (e) none of these.
    6. Economy at year's end will be (a)** recovering from recession; (b)
headed into recession; (c) recession-free.
    7. Reagan's most controversial decision will involve (a) commitment
of U.S. troops abroad; (b)** powerful response to terrorist attack; (c)
international restraint that will be attacked as failure of nerve;
(d) hanging tough for an aide who let him down.
    8. Biggest letdown of the year will be (a) heart-transplant surgery;
(b)** Halley's comet; (c) Wall Street; (d) Flutie.
    9. Democrat leading for presidential nominee in the early surveys of
party officials will be (a) Gary Hart; (b) Ted Kennedy; (c)** Mario
Cuomo; (d) Joseph Biden; (e) Bill Bradley.
    10. Israel will (a) have a new government; (b) adopt the
austerity-free market ideas that will trigger massive U.S. aid; (c)
neither; (d)** both.
d,c,c,e,b
    11. The faction within the Reagan administration that will emerge as
predominant will be (a) Weinberger-Clark-Casey-Kirkpatrick; (b)
Shultz-Baker-Baldrige-McFarlane; (c) Mike Deaver and Nancy Reagan;
(d)** a continuing standoff among these three.
    12. The Strategic Defense Initiative (a) will still be hooted at as
''Star Wars'' and will not be funded; (b) will be used as a
bargaining chip to reduce Soviet land-based missile advantages; (c)
**will be the centerpiece of U.S. defense planning.
    13. The Soviet leader at year's end will be (a) Chernenko; (b)
Gorbachev; (c)** Romanov; (d) Grishin; (e) Ogarkov.
    14. The People's Republic of China will (a) make a surprise deal
with Taiwan; (b) dispense with chopsticks; (c) have a rapprochement
with the Russians; (d) continue on the capitalist road; (e)** have this
decade's upheaval.
    15. The new Justice of the Supreme Court will be (a) Paul Laxalt;
(b)** Robert Bork; (c) Antonin Scalia; (d) William Clark.
c,d,b,a,a
    16. The price of a barrel of oil at year's end will be (a) at the
current level; (b) between $25 and $22; (c)** below $22.
    17. The most significant book to be published in the coming year
will be (a) David McCullough's biography of Harry Truman; (b)
Dominique La Pierre's book about Calcutta; (c) Arianna
Stassinopoulos's biography of Picasso; (d)** the first volume of Fred
Cassidy's Dictionary of American Regional English.
    18. Replacing Paul Volcker at the Fed will be (a) Alan Greenspan,
continuing anti-inflation policy; (b) **Preston Martin, modified
supply-side policy; (c) Walter Wriston, expansionist; (d) nobody -
Volcker won't quit.
    19. The ally to give the U.S. the most trouble will be (a)** Japan,
refusing to lower trade barriers; (b) Spain, pulling out of NATO; (c)
West Germany, turning Green; (d) Mexico, dumping its citizens across
our border; (e) Pakistan, developing the Islamic Bomb.
    20. Leading the polls of registered Republicans for 1988
Presidential nominee at 1985's end will be (a) **George Bush; (b) Bob
Dole; (c) Howard Baker; (d) Jeane Kirkpatrick; (e) Jack Kemp.
    My own choices, betting on many longshots, aree,c,b,d,b,a,b,b,c,d,
d,c,c,e,b,c,d,b,a,a. (That should
be hard to read.) Next year, when you send in those ''And you call
yourself a pundit?'' cards, be sure to include your own selections:
If you don't play, you can't win.
    
nyt-12-30-84 2200est
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